Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 1.187769 1.347573 1.516609 1.708290 1.919162 2.143621 2.400147
2025-02-02 0.962235 1.180842 1.426466 1.721207 2.063508 2.446723 2.906306
2025-02-09 0.779369 1.032621 1.334177 1.715735 2.181353 2.726642 3.408724
2025-02-16 0.636656 0.910824 1.256517 1.716803 2.305234 3.023500 3.956752
2025-02-23 0.502823 0.779608 1.149825 1.668714 2.363115 3.245262 4.433439
2025-03-02 0.385662 0.651207 1.028944 1.586722 2.367885 3.399625 4.838025
2025-03-09 0.313450 0.574551 0.968231 1.578206 2.468257 3.685039 5.433190
2025-03-16 0.250097 0.499505 0.898731 1.547878 2.534051 3.927866 5.988487
2025-03-23 0.214131 0.462493 0.881939 1.593418 2.712394 4.339073 6.802136
2025-03-30 0.167621 0.396882 0.808747 1.541453 2.738820 4.533661 7.322133
2025-04-06 0.135307 0.350404 0.760345 1.522809 2.813329 4.802096 7.963519
2025-04-13 0.107562 0.306107 0.708289 1.490644 2.861669 5.032358 8.560184
2025-04-20 0.091099 0.283261 0.694969 1.528851 3.035806 5.478639 9.525400
2025-04-27 0.076401 0.260469 0.678025 1.558518 3.198476 5.918413 10.507760
2025-05-04 0.062562 0.235482 0.652070 1.567745 3.326234 6.310340 11.438054
2025-05-11 0.051369 0.213821 0.629298 1.580161 3.460520 6.721342 12.421161
2025-05-18 0.039622 0.185692 0.585841 1.544122 3.501521 6.977221 13.166074
2025-05-25 0.028917 0.155542 0.530377 1.473977 3.470006 7.104867 13.704806
2025-06-01 0.023019 0.139436 0.507154 1.471372 3.569151 7.466574 14.652845
2025-06-08 0.017647 0.122164 0.476506 1.446970 3.621583 7.746671 15.474130
2025-06-15 0.015092 0.115784 0.475737 1.493557 3.823532 8.309729 16.808927
2025-06-22 0.011048 0.099086 0.439363 1.446940 3.824666 8.500032 17.498487
2025-06-29 0.008446 0.087731 0.416680 1.431343 3.890185 8.813603 18.418504